A tiger spends all day searching for its prey. When it finds it, it hides in the shadows waiting for the right moment to pounce. Right now that’s exactly what we are doing in the market. It’s not an environment to be buying stocks, even if you’re buying a great company at a great price.Continue reading “The tiger ready to pounce”
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Market analysis 21/06/2022
The market was up broadly today, with the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite both up about 2.5%. It is very likely that we see a short term rally in the indexes here, which could be driven by the most beaten up names. It appears to us that in the short term everyone who wantedContinue reading “Market analysis 21/06/2022”
How to fix the Irish housing crisis
The average house price in Dublin City is sitting at €512,000, and the average house price in Cork City is at €305,000. Monthly rental prices are above €2,000/month and €1,600/month respectively. There is a lot of talk in Ireland, both from government and the public, about the need for government to invest more money intoContinue reading “How to fix the Irish housing crisis”
Fed raises by 75bps, what now?
Today the fed raised rates by 0.75%, bringing the federal funds target range to 1.5% and 1.75%. In Powell’s speech after the initial decision, he said that the “next meeting could well be a decision between 50 and 75”, shutting down any expectations investors had of a full percent or greater hike – for nowContinue reading “Fed raises by 75bps, what now?”
Gold vs bitcoin
There was an interesting quote that we picked up on this week from a Sohn Conference Foundation conversation between John Collison and Stanley Druckenmiller, where Druckenmiller said “if you believe that we are going to have irresponsible monetary policy and inflation going forward, if it’s in a bull phase, you want to own bitcoin, butContinue reading “Gold vs bitcoin”
Market analysis 13/06/22
The market has been down big since the CPI report on Friday. The Nasdaq is down over 7% and the S&P 500 is down over 6%. This is a natural reaction to the realization of greater than expected inflation, because in the minds of Wall Street it means the fed is more likely to beContinue reading “Market analysis 13/06/22”
Trade: EUR/USD in takeoff position
In his book “Soros on Soros”, George Soros talked briefly about the tendency of currencies to move in large waves that span many months or years. If you look at the chart of EUR/USD for the past 30 years you see exactly that. We believe that we are at/near a turning point in one ofContinue reading “Trade: EUR/USD in takeoff position”
Inflation at 8.6% and rising
The consumer price index numbers are out for May and they’re not pretty. Total CPI was up 1% month-on-month in May, and core CPI (total CPI minus food & energy) was up 0.6%. That brings the respective year-on-year totals to 8.6% and 6%. The transitory inflation gig has been up for a while, yet aContinue reading “Inflation at 8.6% and rising”
The current macro outlook
Since Nixon broke the dollar’s tie with gold, the U.S. government has tackled every financial downturn by reducing interest rates and flooding the system with money. The economy recovers, stocks rise, and everyone’s happy again. It happened during the dotcom crash, the financial crisis of 2008, and the Covid-19 crisis. But what happens when theContinue reading “The current macro outlook”
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